June 27, 2010
Wall Street Journal
Central Intelligence Agency Director Leon Panetta said Iran already has enough fissile material for two atomic bombs, and that it could develop nuclear weapons in two years if it wanted, in the Obama administration's starkest assessment to date of Tehran's nuclear work.
Mr. Panetta, appearing on ABC's "This Week" on Sunday, praised the passage of new sanctions against Iran by the United Nations, European Union and U.S. Congress this month. But he expressed doubt that these new financial penalties would be enough to pressure Iran into ending its nuclear work.
"Those sanctions will have some impact. ... It could help weaken the regime. It could create some serious economic problems," Mr. Panetta said. "Will it deter them from their ambitions with regards to nuclear capability? Probably not."
Iran has continually said its nuclear program is for civilian, not military, use. The new sanctions seek to cut off Iran from the global financial system, and to hobble its oil-and-gas sector. The measures also target the businesses of Tehran's elite military unit, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Mr. Panetta's statements on Iran's nuclear program were among the most specific and detailed to come from the U.S. intelligence community in recent months.
The office of the Director of National Intelligence, which coordinates America's 16 spy agencies, is currently seeking to complete a new National Intelligence Estimate to assess the state of Tehran's nuclear work. A controversial 2007 NIE concluded that Iran had ceased its efforts to build atomic weapons in 2003, as the U.S. military intensified its military operations inside neighboring Iraq.
But Mr. Panetta on Sunday suggested that the U.S. intelligence agencies had changed their analysis of the state of Iran's nuclear work. "I think they [the Iranians] continue to develop their know-how. They continue to develop their nuclear capability," he said.
Pressed by ABC's news host whether this included efforts to weaponize its nuclear program, Mr. Panetta responded: "I think they continue to work on designs in that area."
Members of the U.S. intelligence community said the director of national intelligence had originally planned to present a new NIE to President Barack Obama last December. But senior U.S. officials said the process of writing the report continued to be delayed due to the accumulation of new information on the state of Iran's nuclear activities.
Last year, Mr. Obama unveiled intelligence that showed Tehran had developed a secret site in the Iranian city of Qom to enrich uranium. And Tehran in recent months announced that it had begun enriching uranium at levels closer to weapons grade.
Mr. Panetta conceded that the U.S. assessment of Iran's nuclear program continued to diverge from Israel's analysis. Members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government have indicated that they believe Tehran could have deployable nuclear weapons within a year. This has fueled concerns among some European and Arab officials that Israel might attempt to attack Iran's nuclear infrastructure.
"I think, you know, Israel obviously is very concerned, as is the entire world, about what's happening in Iran," Mr. Panetta said. "I think they feel more strongly that Iran has already made the decision to proceed with the bomb. But at the same time, I think they know the sanctions will have an impact."
By Jay Solomo
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