This blog covers all the latest updates on Nuclear weapons and the politics surrounding them.

Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Iran says nuclear talks to resume with Brazil, Turkey


June 29, 2010
Reuters
Iran said on Tuesday it would soon resume nuclear talks with Turkey and Brazil -- a tentative first step back to international negotiations after Tehran was hit with a new wave of sanctions over its disputed nuclear work.
Iran has belittled the U.N., U.S. and European sanctions and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Monday he would return to long-frozen talks with world powers but on certain conditions only, and not before the end of August.
His foreign minister said talks would start before then with the two countries with which it agreed a nuclear fuel swap deal in May -- echoing a U.N.-brokered pact that Tehran backed out of late last year -- and which voted against the U.N. sanctions.
"There were some contacts with the foreign ministers of the three countries (Iran, Turkey and Brazil)," Manouchehr Mottaki told a news conference. "A joint meeting is on the agenda and we will announce it in the coming one or two days."
Iran has held no substantive talks with world powers since the deal in principle on the fuel swap struck with Russia, France and the United States in October.
The pact would have seen Iran sending 1.2 tons of low-enriched uranium (LEU) -- about 70 percent of its stockpile at the time -- abroad in exchange for specially processed fuel rods needed to keep the Tehran medical research reactor running.
In a turnabout, Iran agreed in talks in May with Brazil and Turkey to part with 1.2 tons of LEU. But by then Iran's LEU reserve had doubled in size, devaluing the swap's terms in Western eyes since it would no longer divest Iran of enough LEU to prevent its use for an atom bomb, if refined to high purity.
So the May agreement proved too little too late to prevent a new batch of punitive sanctions from the United Nations, European Union and United States.
Meanwhile, Iran has increased suspicions abroad by launching enrichment up to a level of 20 percent purity, asserting this will yield raw material for making the reactor fuel rods without foreign help -- but at the same time advancing much of the way down the road toward weapons-grade enrichment.
NEW IRANIAN CONDITIONS
Russia, which backed the U.S.-led push for further sanctions but has since complained about the United States and the European Union issuing stricter unilateral measures, said on Tuesday it wanted to get back to talks with Tehran.
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said he wanted talks between Iran, the United States, Russia and the watchdog International Atomic Energy Agency focusing on providing Iran with reactor fuel rods so it would need to escalate enrichment itself.
"In the wake of the Brazilian and Turkish initiative, Russia, along with the United States, approached the director of the IAEA and proposed we arrange a meeting of technical experts from our three countries, including Iran, to discuss the possibility of supplying fuel for the experimental reactor in Iran, so that there will be no need for Iran to enrich the uranium to a level of 20 per cent," Lavrov said.
"I hope very much that Iran will respond positively and that this will help prevent the situation from deteriorating," he told reporters during a visit to Israel, which considers Iran's nuclear campaign an existential threat.
On Monday, Russia complained to the U.N. Security Council about what U.N. diplomats said was Germany's seizure of items bound for a nuclear power plant in Iran, saying such moves were "not in line" with U.N. rules.
On June 19, French President Nicolas Sarkozy told Russian President Dmitry Medvedev that France was ready to talk with Iran at the IAEA "without delay," using the Tehran declaration by Iran, Brazil and Turkey as a starting point [ID:nPAB008398].
The West fears Iran's nuclear work is aimed at developing the means to build bombs because of its history of secrecy and restricting IAEA inspections. Tehran says it will be solely for generating electricity and isotopes for medicine and farming.
Ahmadinejad has called on the major powers to "clarify" three things before talks could resume: their attitude to Israel's alleged nuclear arsenal, their stance on commitments to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and whether they come to the table as Iran's friend or its enemy.
World powers were likely to dismiss such conditions as irrelevant to the main issue -- Iran's refusal to negotiate limits and transparency with respect to its nuclear activity.
"Somehow implying there's a linkage between the Iranian issue and the Israeli issue ... will certainly not make life easier," said a Western diplomat versed in the Iran issue.
"Saying that as a punishment that they only want talks in the third week of August -- this is posturing which we shouldn't take too seriously ... We need to wait for Iran's official response on the (swap) plan and the offer of talks from the EU."
(Additional reporting by Amie Ferris-Rotman in Moscow and Sylvia Westall in Vienna; Writing by Robin Pomeroy and Mark Heinrich; editing by Janet McBride)

Obama, Saudi King Abdullah urge Iran over nuclear program


June 29, 2010
Reuters
President Barack Obama and Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah on Tuesday voiced "strong support" for international efforts to curb Iran's nuclear program, which the West says masks a secret drive to develop the capability for an atomic bomb, the White House said.
Obama and the King also expressed hope "proximity talks between Israelis and Palestinians will lead to the resumption of direct talks with the aim of two states living side-by-side in peace and security," the White House said in a statement.
(Reporting by Alister Bull; Editing by Patricia Zengerle)

India, Canada nuke deal win-win for both: Report

June 30, 2010
Press Trust of india.


Canada should quickly ratify the landmark nuclear deal with India as it will bring more prosperity and cleaner energy to it and also help Ottawa to become 'clean energy superpower', a leading Canadian newspaper commented today.

"The deal is an opportunity for Canada," the Globe and Mail said in its editorial on the nuclear deal signed between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his Canadian counterpart Stephen Harper, 36 years after Ottawa slapped sanctions on India after it exploded an atomic device.

"India is not and should not be treated as a pariah state over its nuclear programme. It has not signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty, but it has also promised to never launch nuclear weapons first against an enemy," it said.


Source: http://www.ptinews.com/news/754094_India--Canada-nuke-deal-win-win-for-both--Report

Monday, June 28, 2010

Iran could have nuclear weapons by 2012, CIA chief warns


June 27, 2010
Telegraph


Iran has enough low-enriched uranium to produce two nuclear weapons, which it could have prepared and ready for delivery as early as 2012, Leon Panetta, the CIA director, said on Sunday.

Tehran would need a year to enrich the uranium fully to produce a bomb and it would take “another year to develop the kind of weapon delivery system in order to make that viable,” Mr Panetta said.

Sanctions imposed by the United Nations could help weaken Tehran’s government by creating economic problems, but were unlikely to put an end to Iran’s nuclear ambitions, Mr Panetta told the ABC network’s “This Week” programme.

Iran is under mounting international pressure over its suspect nuclear programme, which the West fears masks a covert weapons drive. Iran denies the charge, insisting that its atomic programme is for peaceful civilian purposes only.

Over the weekend, G8 leaders urged Tehran to hold a “transparent dialogue” over its suspect nuclear programme. Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Thursday that Iran would this week lay down its conditions for talks with the world powers.
The US Congress this week endorsed a sweeping package of tough new energy and financial sanctions on Tehran over the programme.

The Islamic republic has been flexing its military muscle mainly in the strategic Gulf region by staging regular war games and showcasing an array of Iranian-manufactured missiles.
Neither the United States nor its top regional ally Israel, the sole if undeclared nuclear-armed power in the Middle East, has ruled out a military strike to curb Iran’s atomic drive.

The UN Security Council this month slapped a fourth set of sanctions on Iran, targeting financial transactions and travel by senior military figures, to punish Tehran for its refusal to rein in its uranium enrichment programme.
Iran responded by barring two UN nuclear inspectors from returning to the country last week.



Afghan war 'harder than expected


June 27, 2010
Aljazeera


Leon Panetta, the director of the US Central Intelligence Agency, has said that the US-led war in Afghanistan is both "harder" and moving more slowly than expected.
Panetta said he believed Barack Obama, the US president, is pursuing "the right strategy" in Afghanistan. But he acknowledged that recent news from the war-torn country has been largely negative.


"There are some serious problems," Panetta said in an interview with ABC News on Sunday.
"We're dealing with tribal societies. We're dealing with a country that has problems with governance, problems with corruption, problems with narcotics trafficking, problems with a Taliban insurgency."
Panetta also touched on several other key security issues in the wide-ranging interview.
He said there are "at most... 50 to 100" members of al-Qaeda in Afghanistan, and that the bulk of the organisation is based across the border in Pakistan. US intelligence officials estimate al-Qaeda has less than 300 active members worldwide.

Panetta also defended US policy in Pakistan, saying that everything the US does there is "compliant with US and international law". The CIA runs the US programme of aerial drone strikes in Pakistan, though it does not publicly admit its role.
The CIA director also said the Iranian government has the capacity to produce a nuclear weapon within two years, though he stopped short of saying Iran had decided to pursue such a policy. Iran insists its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes.

Source:
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/americas/2010/06/2010627182031776721.html

Panetta Warns of Iran Nuclear Threat

June 27, 2010
Wall Street Journal
Central Intelligence Agency Director Leon Panetta said Iran already has enough fissile material for two atomic bombs, and that it could develop nuclear weapons in two years if it wanted, in the Obama administration's starkest assessment to date of Tehran's nuclear work.
Mr. Panetta, appearing on ABC's "This Week" on Sunday, praised the passage of new sanctions against Iran by the United Nations, European Union and U.S. Congress this month. But he expressed doubt that these new financial penalties would be enough to pressure Iran into ending its nuclear work.
"Those sanctions will have some impact. ... It could help weaken the regime. It could create some serious economic problems," Mr. Panetta said. "Will it deter them from their ambitions with regards to nuclear capability? Probably not."
Iran has continually said its nuclear program is for civilian, not military, use. The new sanctions seek to cut off Iran from the global financial system, and to hobble its oil-and-gas sector. The measures also target the businesses of Tehran's elite military unit, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Mr. Panetta's statements on Iran's nuclear program were among the most specific and detailed to come from the U.S. intelligence community in recent months.
The office of the Director of National Intelligence, which coordinates America's 16 spy agencies, is currently seeking to complete a new National Intelligence Estimate to assess the state of Tehran's nuclear work. A controversial 2007 NIE concluded that Iran had ceased its efforts to build atomic weapons in 2003, as the U.S. military intensified its military operations inside neighboring Iraq.
But Mr. Panetta on Sunday suggested that the U.S. intelligence agencies had changed their analysis of the state of Iran's nuclear work. "I think they [the Iranians] continue to develop their know-how. They continue to develop their nuclear capability," he said.
Pressed by ABC's news host whether this included efforts to weaponize its nuclear program, Mr. Panetta responded: "I think they continue to work on designs in that area."
Members of the U.S. intelligence community said the director of national intelligence had originally planned to present a new NIE to President Barack Obama last December. But senior U.S. officials said the process of writing the report continued to be delayed due to the accumulation of new information on the state of Iran's nuclear activities.
Last year, Mr. Obama unveiled intelligence that showed Tehran had developed a secret site in the Iranian city of Qom to enrich uranium. And Tehran in recent months announced that it had begun enriching uranium at levels closer to weapons grade.
Mr. Panetta conceded that the U.S. assessment of Iran's nuclear program continued to diverge from Israel's analysis. Members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government have indicated that they believe Tehran could have deployable nuclear weapons within a year. This has fueled concerns among some European and Arab officials that Israel might attempt to attack Iran's nuclear infrastructure.
"I think, you know, Israel obviously is very concerned, as is the entire world, about what's happening in Iran," Mr. Panetta said. "I think they feel more strongly that Iran has already made the decision to proceed with the bomb. But at the same time, I think they know the sanctions will have an impact."
By  Jay Solomo

Pakistan PM reverses stance on U.S. sanctions on Iran


June 22, 2010
Reuters
Pakistan's prime minister backtracked on Tuesday from a statement that Islamabad would abide by U.S. sanctions on Iran that could affect a $7.6 billion Pakistani-Iranian gas pipeline project.

On Monday, Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani said Pakistan would respect U.S. sanctions that are expected to be put into law shortly, part of Washington's opposition to an Iranian nuclear programme it suspects is being used for weapons.

Gilani said on Tuesday, however, he wanted to clarify and "get it right."

"As far as the U.S. is concerned, we're not bound to follow it," he said while speaking at a ceremony in Islamabad. "If these are U.N. (sanctions) then according to international laws, we'll consider them."

U.S. Special Envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke warned Islamabad on Sunday against overcommitting to the natural gas pipeline project because of the expected effects of the sanctions.

Pakistan is desperate for new energy sources, saddled with expensive generation and a daily shortage of as much as 5,000 megawatts. Frequent outages hamper industry and have sparked street protests against President Asif Ali Zardari's government.

The pipeline, expected to be completed by 2015, originally would have terminated in India. However, New Delhi has been reluctant to join given its long-running rivalry with Pakistan.

(By Kamran Haider Editing by Bryson Hull and Paul Tait)

Al Qaeda network severely degraded: U.S. envoy


June 19, 2010
Reuters
Al Qaeda's network had been "severely degraded" by joint U.S.-Pakistani efforts, the U.S. special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan said on Saturday.
A few hours before Richard Holbrooke spoke, a U.S. drone killed 12 militants in Pakistan's North Waziristan region on the Afghan border which Washington says is used by the Afghan Taliban to attack U.S.-led NATO troops in Afghanistan.
"The al Qaeda network has been severely degraded in recent years in efforts that both our countries work on," Holbrooke told a joint news conference with Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi.
Asked whom he would hold responsible if al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and the Afghan Taliban chief, Mullah Mohammad Omar, were hiding somewhere along the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, Holbrooke demurred.
"Many of their associates have been apprehended or killed. Even those two people ... are still at large but they are under intense pressure," he said.
Holbrooke praised Pakistan's sacrifices in the fight against militants on its soil and said he hoped more would be achieved.
"In regard to the war itself, Pakistan has made progress, but it doesn't mean that we've reached the end of the road. This is a tough, long struggle and much more needs to be done," he said.
Pakistani action against militants on the border is seen as important for bringing stability to Afghanistan, where U.S. forces are leading a major NATO offensive against the Taliban.
Pakistan, fighting its own home-grown Taliban, is under growing U.S. pressure to crack down harder on Afghan Taliban using Pakistani sanctuaries to attack NATO forces in Afghanistan.
U.S. officials said this week the United States had given Pakistan evidence about the growing threat and reach of a militant faction, the Haqqani network, which Washington suspects has ties to Pakistani intelligence.
Although denying it supports its old Afghan Taliban allies, Washington's nuclear-armed ally has long turned a blind eye to their members and support networks in the belief the Taliban represent the only leverage it has over Afghanistan.
Holbrooke announced $11.1 million in humanitarian aid for Pakistanis suffering from the effects of the conflict with homegrown militants in the northwest of the country.
(By Augustine Anthony Editing by Bryson Hull and Andrew Dobbie)

Energy-starved Pakistan seeks wind investors


June 18, 2010
Reuters
Pakistan this year expects to finalize four wind power deals worth $500 million to exploit a renewable resource that has been barely tapped in a country with a yawning gap between power capacity and demand.
The country suffers chronic power cuts that inflame public anger and stifle industry, a crisis seen by analysts as a test for President Asif Ali Zardari. Daily shortfalls are 4,500-5,000 megawatts (MW), Water and Power Ministry figures show.
But the South Asian nation's coastal belt holds particular promise for wind power, with a potential of producing 50,000 megawatts, according to the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory.
Arif Alauddin, chief executive of Pakistan's Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB), on Friday said talks were underway with six Pakistani investors to build wind farms.
"We have reached a stage I can say at least four deals will be finalized this year and production would start next year," he told Reuters. "The worth of these deals will be $500 million."
They would encompass four 50 MW plants with expected completion by the end of 2011, he said.
INCENTIVES, LAND
AEDB is trying to boost local private investment in alternative energy by offering incentives and access to wind turbine makers and operators such as Siemens, Nordex SE, Coolwind, SWEG and General Electric.
Nordex in March agreed to supply FCC Energy Ltd., a local company, with turbines for a 50 MW farm in the southern Sindh province.
To attract private investors, Alauddin said the government is guaranteeing an annual rate of return of up to 18 percent and will pay power producers if the wind blows below an annual average of 7.3 metres per second.
AEDB has already allocated land for 18 independent power producers for wind power projects of 50 MW each. The U.S. Agency for International Development has plans to help Pakistan develop wind farms to generate 300 MW by the end of 2014.
"You cannot expect changes overnight. It'll take time. But we believe some 10,000 MW would be coming through wind in the next five to 10 years," Alauddin said.
AEDB is carrying out national wind mapping for possible farms in other locations such as southwestern Baluchistan and northwestern Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa.
Pakistan is also looking at solar energy as another renewable option, and the central bank is offering to finance 80 percent of local solar investments. The government has removed duty and sales taxes on solar technology imports.
Sixty-five percent of cash-strapped Pakistan's electricity comes from oil and gas and 30 percent from hydroelectric sources. An additional 5 percent comes from two nuclear plants.
Out of total imports of $31.48 billion in the last 10 months, oil imports were $8.3 billion, government figures show.
"We've got to turn around our energy mix. We cannot afford it," said Mohammad Khaid, director general of the state-run Pakistan Electric and Power Company (PEPCO).
Pakistan aims to add at least 2,000 MW by December from seven rental power plants and one independent producer.
(By Kamran Haider Editing by Bryson Hull and Jane Baird)

Sunday, June 27, 2010

Europe could face hundreds of Iranian missiles: Gates


June 17, 2010
Reuters
U.S. intelligence showing Iran likely would have the capability to attack Europe with "scores or even hundreds" of missiles factored into the Obama administration's decision to overhaul missile defenses, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said on Thursday.
Citing the growing Iranian missile threat, the United States announced plans last September to integrate sea- and land-based missile defenses in and around its NATO allies in Europe, referred to as the "phased adaptive approach."
"One of the elements of the intelligence that contributed to the decision on the phased adaptive array (approach) was the realization that if Iran were actually to launch a missile attack on Europe, it wouldn't be just one or two missiles, or a handful," Gates said at a congressional hearing.
"It would more likely be a salvo kind of attack, where you would be dealing potentially with scores or even hundreds of missiles."
Gates voiced confidence that upgraded missile interceptors in development "would give us the ability to protect our troops, our bases, our facilities and our allies in Europe."
Gates said having those interceptor systems in place by around 2020 was critical not only because of the missile threat from Iran and North Korea, but because "I think by 2020 we may well see it from other states, especially if we're unsuccessful in stopping Iran from building nuclear weapons."
Earlier in the hearing, however, Gates sought to allay Russian concerns about the new U.S. approach to missile defenses in Europe by playing down the system's ability to counter a large-scale attack from Russia.
RUSSIANS 'HATE IT'
"Our missile defenses do not have the capability to defend against the Russian Federation's large, advanced arsenal. Consequently, U.S. missile defenses do not and will not affect Russia's strategic deterrent," Gates said.
"The Russians know that our missile defenses are designed to intercept a limited number of ballistic missiles launched by a country such as Iran or North Korea," he said.
The Obama administration has held out the possibility that Moscow could take part in the missile defense system in partnership with the United States.
But Gates said: "There is no meeting of the minds on missile defense. The Russians hate it. They've hated it since the late 1960s. They will always hate it, mostly because we'll build it and they won't."
U.S. intelligence agencies have long warned about Iran's growing missile threat and officials say anti-ballistic missile systems should cover all of Europe by 2018.
The multibillion-dollar effort is designed to defend against Iranian missiles that could be tipped with chemical, biological or nuclear warheads, officials say.
According to U.S. estimates, Iran could produce enough bomb-grade fuel for a nuclear weapon in as little as one year but would probably need three to five years to deploy a "usable" one.
(Reporting by Adam Entous and Phil Stewart; Editing by Bill Trott)

China says Pakistan nuclear plants for peaceful use


June 17, 2010
Reuters

China said on Thursday its civilian nuclear cooperation with Pakistan was for peaceful purposes, after the United States said it was seeking clarification from China on a deal to build two new reactors.
"I want to stress that the civilian nuclear cooperation between China and Pakistan is in line with each side's international obligations," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang told a news briefing in Beijing.
"It is for peaceful purposes, and is under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency," he added without elaborating.
U.S. State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley told reporters on Tuesday that Washington had asked China for more details on the deal. [ID:nN15119219]
"We have asked China to clarify the details of its sale of additional nuclear reactors to Pakistan. This appears to extend beyond cooperation that was grandfathered when China was approved for membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group," he said.
"We believe that such cooperation would require a specific exemption approved by consensus of the Nuclear Suppliers Group," Crowley said.
The United States was expected to oppose the China-Pakistan deal next week at a meeting of the Nuclear Suppliers Group.
The 46-nation group controls trade in "dual-use" nuclear fuel, materials and technology to ensure they are applied only to civilian nuclear energy programs and not diverted into clandestine nuclear weapons work.
The Washington Post reported that China had suggested that the sale was grandfathered from before it joined the NSG in 2004, because it was completing work on two earlier reactors for Pakistan at the time.
(Reporting by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Ken Wills)