May 28, 2010
Alistair Lyon, Special Correspondent
Reuters - President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has never shied away from lambasting Iran's foes. Now he has alienated Russia, which has long helped delay or dilute U.N. sanctions aimed at the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme.
The row between Moscow and Tehran reflects long-simmering tensions that came to the boil on Wednesday when Ahmadinejad berated Russian President Dmitry Medvedev for buckling under what he said was U.S. pressure for fresh sanctions.
The Kremlin swiftly chastised the Iranian leader for "political demagoguery" and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Thursday described Ahmadinejad's tirade as "emotional".
He said Iran had for years failed to respond to Moscow's efforts to resolve the dispute over nuclear work seen by the West as having military purposes, a charge Tehran denies.
"Things have been turning sour for a while," said Ali Ansari, an Iran expert at Scotland's St Andrews University, who suggested that Russia was piqued by Iran's acceptance this month of a nuclear fuel swap deal proposed by Turkey and Brazil -- although Lavrov said it would be a breakthrough if implemented.
"If the deal was do-able now, why not back in October when it would actually have meant something in terms of Iran's enriched uranium stocks?" Ansari asked.
Russia and other world powers backed a fuel swap proposal drawn up by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) last year after Iran declared it needed fuel for a Tehran research reactor with medical uses. Iran effectively rejected the idea.
Responding to word of last week's deal with Turkey and Brazil, Medvedev said a key question was whether Iran intended to continue enriching uranium.
Tehran has since vowed to do so, removing, in Moscow's view, the main rationale for the fuel swap and perhaps convincing the Kremlin that Iran's only motive is to play for time.
Baqer Moin, a London-based analyst, said it was unclear if Ahmadinejad's outburst had the backing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say on nuclear policy.
"The Russians don't take Ahmadinejad that seriously," he said, recalling that when Vladimir Putin visited Tehran as Russian president in 2007 he first held talks with Khamenei.
"But if it was not just an off-the-cuff remark -- and if what is coming from the Russians reflects the Russian state -- then it is a major development in the relationship," Moin said.
"It's a bad sign for Iran because they badly needed Russian influence if not to veto, at least to modify, the (U.N. sanctions) resolution as they have done before."
RUSSIA WARMING TO SANCTIONS?
The United States said last week that Russia and China, which have both resisted sanctions against Iran in the past, had agreed to a draft resolution for further punitive U.N. measures.
Ahmadinejad has long taken a defiant line on the nuclear issue, viewed by many Iranians as a matter of national pride. But he initially supported the IAEA's proposal which called for Iran to ship 1.2 tonnes of low-enriched uranium abroad in return for specially processed fuel for its medical isotope reactor.
He then backed away under fire from conservative and reformist critics at home -- only to seal a similar deal with Turkey and Brazil last week. Ahmadinejad called it a "historic opportunity" which U.S. President Barack Obama should seize.
Western leaders said it was a ploy to avert sanctions and failed to allay their fears because Iran had pledged to go on enriching uranium and even if part of its stockpile went to Turkey it would still have enough fuel for one nuclear warhead.
Mahjoob Zweiri, a Qatar-based academic, said Ahmadinejad must have gained high-level backing for the Turkey-Brazil deal.
"He was reflecting the outcome of an internal debate that took place maybe last week," he said. "In one way or another he had a kind of understanding that this deal will be supported."
Zweiri said Iran had not expected Russia to swing behind the West on sanctions. It was already aggrieved at delays to the start-up of a Russian-built nuclear reactor at Bushehr and uncertainty over an order for Russian S-300 anti-aircraft missiles, which could protect Iranian nuclear sites from attack.
The spat between two of the world's biggest energy producers is among their worst since the Cold War.
Though trade ties have grown over the past two decades, Russia is still regarded with deep distrust in Iran after several wars between Persia and the Tsarist Empire, followed by rocky relations with the atheist Soviet Union.
Moin, the London-based analyst, said it was unlikely that either side wanted a real rift, but if tensions between Russia and the Islamic Republic persisted, other issues could surface.
"So far the Iranians have been silent on Chechnya," he said, referring to Russia's violent struggles with Islamist militants in its mainly Muslim-populated Caucasus republic.
"At the end of the day, Russia is weighing its international interests with the West and Iran -- and obviously choosing the West when the crunch comes," Moin said.
(Additional reporting by Dmitry Solovyov in Moscow; Editing by Dominic Evans)
Source: http://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-48850420100527
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